The Evolution of ISIS: From Territorial Caliphate to Global
January 2025, Article written by Camilla Maury
January 1st, 2025, New Orleans, Louisiana. At around 3:15 a.m., a man named Shamsud-Din Jabbara, a 42-year-old U.S. Army veteran, drives a pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street, as New Orleanians reunite to celebrate the new year. Jabbar then exits the truck and engages in a shootout with police before being fatally shot. Fifteen people were killed, including the perpetrator, and at least fifty-seven others were injured, including two police officers who were shot.
As the world grieved the victims of what looked like a regular happening in the United States - where 330 people die from gun violence every day - some details sparked worldwide enquiry: an Islamic State flag found in the perpetrator’s vehicle, and after further research, posted videos of Jabbara pledging his allegiance to IS in the hours before the attack. In fact, when we think about it, when was the last time a terrorist attack related to ISIS was met with such extensive media coverage? When was the last time the world heard of ISIS at all?
The Islamic State (IS) is a transnational jihadist movement that emerged from al-Qaeda in Iraq in the early 2010s. In 2013, the group expanded its operations into Syria, rebranding itself as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) to reflect its broader ambitions. In 2014, under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS declared a "caliphate" and, at its peak, exercised governance over millions, conducting mass executions and inspiring a wave of global terrorism. However, by 2019, a coordinated military campaign led by the United States and its allies had dismantled the group’s territorial stronghold, forcing it to adopt a decentralized insurgency model. Since then, ISIS has increasingly relied on regional affiliates, online radicalization, and asymmetric warfare to maintain its influence.
This evolution and strategic shift illustrated by the New Orleans attack raises the question: How has ISIS transformed from its peak in the mid-2010s to today, and what can be expected in the near future? This article will first recall the rise and fall of the IS Caliphate from 2011 to 2019, then will explain fragmentation and adaptation after its military defeat against the Western coalition, to finally analyze the case of the New Orleans attack and what expectations it can set for the terrorist group’s future actions and geopolitical relevance today.
Part I: The Rise and Fall of a Caliphate (2011-2019)
ISIS traces its origins back to al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), an extremist Islamist group founded in the early 2000s by Jordanian jihadist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, responsible for numerous terrorist attacks such as the 2001 World Trade Center kamikaze plane attacks. After al-Zarqawi’s death in 2006 and AQI’s weakening facing U.S. counter-terrorism efforts, the group rebranded itself as the Islamic State of Iraq in 2010. By 2013, amid the Syrian Civil War and Iraq’s deteriorating security and societal fragmentation, the group quickly expanded its control over the region, adopting the new name of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). In June 2014, after having affirmed its dominance in Syria by declaring Raqqa their de facto capital, ISIS launched a major military offensive in Iraq, capturing Mosul, the country’s second-largest city. Shortly after, al-Zarqawi’s successor, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared the establishment of a ‘caliphate’, proclaiming himself ‘Caliph Ibrahim’ and calling on Muslims worldwide to pledge allegiance and spread the jihad. This moment marked the official transformation of ISIS from an insurgent group into a self-proclaimed state, an entity of international political importance.
The period from 2014 to 2017 marked the peak of ISIS’ action and influence in the Middle East, as they increasingly seized territories in Iraq and Syria. The group employed a three-way method to secure their hegemony not only in their dominated regions, but also on larger scales. In fact, in addition to its intense practice of armed violence, ISIS established governance structures in Syria and Iraq, funding operations through oil trade, taxation and illicit financing. As for their worldwide influence, they employed global recruitment strategies via intense media propaganda and radicalization campaigns. This strategy of foreign indoctrination permitted ISIS to extend its reach beyond its claimed caliphate, first manifesting in 2014 when a shooter killed four people in the Jewish Museum of Belgium. The following year, they orchestrated high-profile attacks in Paris, including the Charlie Hebdo shooting and the Bataclan concert hall massacre, whose immense media coverage gave the group a wave of international visibility. While the latter are notable examples, ISIS perpetrated numerous attacks worldwide throughout this period, resulting in thousands of deaths and a new apogee of global terrorism.
However, the group’s conquests soon came to an end. Between 2017 and 2019, ISIS faced significant territorial losses due to coordinated efforts by international coalitions, including the United States, Iraqi forces, Kurdish units, and Russia - the latter notably in support of Assad's regime in Syria, which had become ever-so-fragile facing the terrorist threat. Two pivotal moments were the liberation of Mosul in July 2017 by Iraqi security forces and the recapture of Raqqa in October 2017 by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) backed by U.S. support. These military victories allowed an effective dismantlement of ISIS’ stronghold in Iraq and Syria, leading to the group’s fragmentation into regional cells and sleeper networks, thus marking the end of the centralized caliphate proclaimed by al-Baghdadi three years prior.
Part II: After the Caliphate - Fragmentation and Adaptation
The liberation of Syrian and Iraqi territories from the ISIS stronghold shed hope for a definitive end to the terrorist menace that had dominated them for half a decade. However, the terrorist group was far from calling total defeat. In fact, while the self-declared caliphate had collapsed on a territorial level, it quickly transitioned into decentralized insurgency, with regional affiliates intensifying operations across the world. Two notable examples of regional branches that gained influence after 2017 are the ISIS-K and ISIS Africa groups.
Operating in Afghanistan as the Khorasan Province, ISIS-K has orchestrated numerous attacks and high-profile incidents targeting both civilians and the Taliban, such as the assassination of Taliban minister Khali Haqqani in Kabul in December 2024. In Africa, ISIS affiliates have expanded most importantly across the Sahel and Nigeria, but also in Mozambique, exploiting the countries’ weak governance and local conflicts to establish their influence. Meanwhile, in Iraq and Syria, ISIS persists through guerilla warfare and terrorist attacks, leveraging sleeper cells to destabilize local security forces and communities.
In the Western world, the group seems to leave direct interventions aside, instead increasingly relying on online radicalization to inspire lone-wolf attacks. This strategy has facilitated the recent spread of the group's extremist ideology across Europe, Asia and North America - a recent example being the New Year’s Day killing in New Orleans that we previously mentioned. The perpetrator, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, had, in fact, posted videos online vouching his loyalty to ISIS and its radical ideals, going as far as detailing his action plans in view of the attack. These repeated independent attacks not only show the role of social media in facilitating rapid radicalization, but also ISIS’ constant ability to adapt itself to an ever-evolving global context.
Part III: The New Orleans Attack - The Return of the Phantom Menace?
While ISIS action was and still is very well present across the world, recent years have seen the consolidation of a certain Western denial regarding the group’s terrorist threat as an anguish of the past. The New Year’s Day Attack, in fact, seems to reignite fears about an ‘ISIS comeback’, especially in Western nations where media coverage of its activities has declined. The reality is that ISIS has always been active globally, but its influence, on the other hand, has largely been overlooked - until now. This attack shattered this seeming Western illusion that the group had faded, forcing the West to confront a pressing question: is ISIS still a major threat, even more so now than ever?
The New Orleans vehicular attack of January 2025 underscores ISIS’ strategic shift toward decentralized extremism; despite losing its territorial caliphate, the group effectively leverages online platforms, notably social media, to recruit and radicalize individuals remotely. Shamsud-Din Jabbar’s case clearly illustrates how ISIS can motivate lone actors to carry out attacks without direct operational support. However, being the first ISIS-inspired incident on U.S. soil to receive significant attention in years, the New Orleans attack raises a great deal of questions. While it serves as a stark reminder that ISIS’s ideology remains potent despite previous Western beliefs of its decline, questions linger about the true significance of such attacks. Is ISIS’s central command actively orchestrating these incidents as part of a broader strategy to reclaim its international influence, or are we witnessing a new phase of decentralized extremism, driven by independent actors with no direct ties to the group's overarching political agenda?
Whichever the answer may be, the attack signals an urgent need for updated counter-terrorism strategies. While traditional counterterrorism efforts targeted physical networks, ISIS’s adaptability demands a broader approach; one that addresses both the role of digital platforms in spreading extremism and the geopolitical instability that enables terrorist groups to flourish.
Part IV: Will the Caliphate Strike Back?
As the world is left perplexed by this recent attack, analysts highlight how it shows the persistent threat posed by ISIS, even as global attention has waned. As we look ahead, it is crucial not only to assess the evolving nature of security threats in the West and the effectiveness of current counterterrorism strategies, but also the group’s potential resurgence in conflict zones, notably in the Middle East and Africa.
As previously mentioned, the ideological influence of ISIS persists to this day, through new independent acts of violence, a product of the group’s worldwide radicalization efforts. The New Orleans case exemplifies how powerful ISIS’ Islamist propaganda can be, allowing them to manipulate individuals into perpetuating acts of terror without direct support. The proliferation of technology, artificial intelligence and under-monitored social media platforms has facilitated the spread of extremist content, making it more challenging for authorities to effectively monitor and prevent this rise of radical indoctrination. This decentralized threat requires a reevaluation of current security measures to address online radicalization effectively. Given the current mediatic context, where platforms such as X - formerly Twitter - and TikTok have shown a severe lack of control over the content circulating on their algorithms, governments must set boundaries and clearly draw the line between what can be considered extremist propaganda and ‘freedom of speech’.
This lingering threat also brings us to look at the situation in the Middle East, where, despite significant territorial losses, ISIS remains an extremely present force. In fact, the group’s adaptability and the ongoing instability in these regions raise concerns about its potential to reclaim its territorial caliphate. A major concern is the current situation in Syria, as the country’s new leader, Abu Hudhaifa al-Shar’a, is a former leading figure of Al-Qaeda. While he claims to have moved on from this allegiance and promises to build a new progressive Syria, Shar’a’s connections leave international actors apprehending a possible renewal of ties and collaboration between Al-Qaeda and ISIS, especially given Syria’s fractured landscape. As for Iraq, SIS continues its insurgency, exploiting security gaps to target military forces and civilians.
Beyond the Middle East, the concern is for ISIS’ rapid expansion in Africa and Central Asia. The Sahel region, in particular, has seen a significant surge in ISIS-affiliated activity following the withdrawal of French military forces beginning in 2022. With local governments struggling to contain rising violence, ISIS-linked groups are seizing the opportunity to consolidate power and impose governance structures, mirroring their early territorial ambitions. Both in the Middle East and Africa, if counterterrorism efforts fail to adapt symmetrically to ISIS’ strategy, the group’s resurgence could very well redefine global jihadist threats.
Conclusion: An Ever-Present Shadow
Decidedly, the New Orleans attack was more than an isolated act of terror, but rather a wake-up call. For years, the world had relegated ISIS to the past, treating it as a defeated force ever since its territorial defeat. Yet, the Bourbon Street attack allowed for disillusion, proving that while the caliphate may be gone, its ideology remains very much alive. ISIS had, in fact, not disappeared - it has adapted. From Iraq and Syria to Africa and Central Asia, the group continues to exploit instability to expand its influence. In the West, the tactic is different, relying on online radicalization and individual operations to strike fear back into societies that had long undermined the group’s presence. The New Orleans attack was the first in years to command widespread attention - but it likely won’t be the last. The question now is not whether ISIS is still a threat - it is. The real question we ought to ask ourselves is whether governments will recognize the urgency of this evolving menace and respond accordingly, as the denial of the issue up to now has only nurtured it. Without a renewed commitment to counterterrorism—one that addresses both physical and digital battlegrounds—ISIS will continue to haunt the world, striking when least expected.
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